2022 Simulated Schedules

Introduction

For a full explanation of methodology see the 2023 Simulated Schedules page.

I generated 10 million random season schedules then used the 2022 season point outcomes each week to determine what the regular season standings would be for each schedule.

Season Results

Here are the results of the 2022 Season

Rank	Username	Points For	Points Against	Record
1	burgertownthicnred	1856.59	1599.04	13-1
2	therealfergus	2176.38	1684.36	10-4
3	herbietime	2166.89	1878.32	9-5
4	thezirconisdragon	1925.02	1731.69	8-6
5	mackjyers21	1838.20	1870.89	8-6
6	namebrant	1875.33	1852.99	7-7
7	empireyikesback	1603.80	1675.91	7-7
8	shakylegs	1820.44	1773.26	6-8
9	alecwilson	1711.02	1953.16	5-9
10	black8yellownation	1697.22	1872.82	4-10
11	tonygordzilla22	1575.23	1865.20	4-10
12	pacc	1546.14	2034.62	3-11

Ranking Counts

These are the raw counts from the 10 million simulations. Some interesting notes:

• Every team except herbietime could have placed last, who’s lowest ranking in the simulations was 7th.
• Every team could have placed first

There could be schedules were herbietime placed lower than 7th, but they didn’t occur in these 10 million simulated schedules.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
therealfergus	7051924	1918803	626791	243497	98729	39456	14863	4442	1246	217	31	1
herbietime	2324007	5870166	1466564	291928	42931	4270	134	0	0	0	0	0
namebrant	182179	549583	1763731	2072461	1714522	1353389	990934	671285	390579	201265	85076	24996
thezirconisdragon	172367	705490	2946337	2284685	1591888	1078057	650100	362141	147320	49836	10448	1331
burgertownthicnred	132582	401293	1322104	1796774	1912706	1705152	1277458	830484	419592	157110	39417	5328
mackjyers21	95071	365016	1130730	1751132	2025363	1891529	1343868	804767	388339	152176	43879	8130
shakylegs	24313	106217	386736	801559	1289289	1799152	2207580	1670266	983890	479109	195368	56521
black8yellownation	14324	64955	250486	481362	755281	1061767	1504236	2038612	2165606	1097009	442847	123515
alecwilson	3060	16875	89890	217731	424854	751722	1320777	2214308	2477538	1489315	729290	264640
tonygordzilla22	134	891	6361	18135	39613	78827	163152	324104	705850	1572148	3061888	4028897
pacc	22	283	3626	13947	35539	80436	178717	365826	796348	1623371	2936226	3965659
empireyikesback	17	428	6644	26789	69285	156243	348181	713765	1523692	3178444	2455530	1520982

Ranking Percentage

This is the same table as above, however, now it shows as a percentage. I’ve also highlighted the ranking that each team actually had in the 2023 season. Here we can really start to see that the 2022 schedule worked well for some players: burgertownthicnred and empireyikesback.

• The first column is each team’s chance of placing first
• The last column is each team’s chance of placing last

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
therealfergus	70.51924	19.18803	6.26791	2.43497	0.98729	0.39456	0.14863	0.04442	0.01246	0.00217	0.00031	1e-05
herbietime	23.24007	58.70166	14.66564	2.91928	0.42931	0.0427	0.00134	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
namebrant	1.82179	5.49583	17.63731	20.72461	17.14522	13.53389	9.90934	6.71285	3.90579	2.01265	0.85076	0.24996
thezirconisdragon	1.72367	7.0549	29.46337	22.84685	15.91888	10.78057	6.501	3.62141	1.4732	0.49836	0.10448	0.01331
burgertownthicnred	1.32582	4.01293	13.22104	17.96774	19.12706	17.05152	12.77458	8.30484	4.19592	1.5711	0.39417	0.05328
mackjyers21	0.95071	3.65016	11.3073	17.51132	20.25363	18.91529	13.43868	8.04767	3.88339	1.52176	0.43879	0.0813
shakylegs	0.24313	1.06217	3.86736	8.01559	12.89289	17.99152	22.0758	16.70266	9.8389	4.79109	1.95368	0.56521
black8yellownation	0.14324	0.64955	2.50486	4.81362	7.55281	10.61767	15.04236	20.38612	21.65606	10.97009	4.42847	1.23515
alecwilson	0.0306	0.16875	0.8989	2.17731	4.24854	7.51722	13.20777	22.14308	24.77538	14.89315	7.2929	2.6464
tonygordzilla22	0.00134	0.00891	0.06361	0.18135	0.39613	0.78827	1.63152	3.24104	7.0585	15.72148	30.61888	40.28897
pacc	0.00022	0.00283	0.03626	0.13947	0.35539	0.80436	1.78717	3.65826	7.96348	16.23371	29.36226	39.65659
empireyikesback	0.00017	0.00428	0.06644	0.26789	0.69285	1.56243	3.48181	7.13765	15.23692	31.78444	24.5553	15.20982

Playoff Chances

Aggregating the previous table gives us a better picture.

• Burgertownthicnred took 1st place, with only a 1.3% chance, and had a 98.7% chance of placing worse.
• Empireyikesback took 7th and had a 93.9% chance of placing worse.
• Blackandyellownation took 10th and had a 83.4% chance of placing better.
• Herbietime took 3rd and had an 81.9% chance of placing better.

Rank	Username	Better	Equal	Worse	Playoff
1	burgertownthicnred	0.00	1.33	98.67	72.71
2	therealfergus	70.52	19.19	10.29	99.79
3	herbietime	81.94	14.67	3.39	100.00
4	thezirconisdragon	38.24	22.85	38.91	87.79
5	mackjyers21	33.42	20.25	46.33	72.59
6	namebrant	62.82	13.53	23.64	76.36
7	empireyikesback	2.59	3.48	93.92	2.59
8	shakylegs	66.15	16.70	17.15	44.07
9	alecwilson	50.39	24.78	24.83	15.04
10	black8yellownation	83.37	10.97	5.66	26.28
11	tonygordzilla22	29.09	30.62	40.29	1.44
12	pacc	60.34	39.66	0.00	1.34

For you visual minded guys, here’s a chart of the previous table:

Some Interesting Rankings

Here are some interesting rankings from all ten million simulations. The columns in these tables are given:

• The Chance >= column contains the percentage of simulations in which that team placed greater than or equal to their given ranking.
• The Playoff column contains the percentage of simulations in which that team made the playoffs

Most Common Ranking

The most common ranking order appeared 16,515 times:

Rank	Username	Chance >=	Playoff
1	therealfergus	70.51924	99.79
2	herbietime	81.94173	100.00
3	thezirconisdragon	38.24194	87.79
4	namebrant	45.67954	76.36
5	burgertownthicnred	55.65459	72.71
6	mackjyers21	72.58841	72.59
7	shakylegs	66.14846	44.07
8	alecwilson	50.39217	15.04
9	black8yellownation	83.36629	26.28
10	empireyikesback	60.23488	2.59
11	pacc	60.34341	1.34
12	tonygordzilla22	100.00000	1.44

Unlikely Top 3

In this ranking, burgertownthicnred, shakylegs, and pacc all beat the odds to take the tops spots.

Rank	Username	Chance >=	Playoff
1	burgertownthicnred	1.32582	72.71
2	shakylegs	1.30530	44.07
3	pacc	0.03931	1.34
4	therealfergus	98.41015	99.79
5	herbietime	99.95596	100.00
6	thezirconisdragon	87.78824	87.79
7	mackjyers21	86.02709	72.59
8	alecwilson	50.39217	15.04
9	black8yellownation	83.36629	26.28
10	namebrant	98.89928	76.36
11	empireyikesback	84.79018	2.59
12	tonygordzilla22	100.00000	1.44

Lopsided Playoffs

Here, we have the bottom three teams and the bottom 5th team in terms of playoff chance all making the playoffs.

Rank	Username	Chance >=	Playoff
1	herbietime	23.24007	100.00
2	therealfergus	89.70727	99.79
3	black8yellownation	3.29765	26.28
4	empireyikesback	0.33878	2.59
5	tonygordzilla22	0.65134	1.44
6	pacc	1.33853	1.34
7	namebrant	86.26799	76.36
8	alecwilson	50.39217	15.04
9	thezirconisdragon	99.38385	87.79
10	burgertownthicnred	99.55255	72.71
11	mackjyers21	99.91870	72.59
12	shakylegs	100.00000	44.07

End

Another showing of how just about anything can happen in the season with different schedules.